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Gold
2026-08-13 08:03:25

Gold rebounds after a 26% drawdown as central bank buying returns, article argues

A TechFlowPost article translated from author 0xKyle argues that gold has set up an asymmetric opportunity after a months-long pullback and renewed upside break. The piece says the metal peaked at $5,300 in February 2026 and then fell 26%, with traders spending months trying to identify a bottom. In the author’s view, the more important shift is that central banks have moved back into net buying after a quiet first quarter, while speculative excess has largely been flushed out. The article ties the correction to several factors, including Chinese liquidity conditions, the Iran war and a pause in central bank purchases. It also points to a March 2 peak in a chart tracking the year-over-year change in the People’s Bank of China’s net liquidity injections into China’s money market, smoothed by a 50-day moving average. Although daily reverse repos have recently picked up, the author says the clearer signal is that official-sector buying has resumed. On the technical side, the piece says gold has reclaimed its 50-day moving average, broken a descending trendline, moved back above the 200-day EMA and seen the 10-day EMA cross above the 21-day EMA. At the same time, the author warns that a (20/3) Bollinger Band setup has flashed a sell signal, suggesting a short-term pullback could come first. The zone between $4,341 and $4,191 is presented as an area to watch, with roughly $4,170 marked as the trade invalidation level.

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